Gold Futures Market Update and Analysis: Prices Soar, Demand Rises
Gold prices continued to soar in the past week, with the precious metal hitting new all-time highs in both London and Shanghai. The price of gold jumped within $2 of December's all-time spot-market spike on Tuesday, setting fresh benchmark records in both cities. Gold then hit $2141 per Troy ounce in London trade before edging back but fixing around $2139 at the city's 3pm benchmarking auction, more than 1.9% above yesterday's then-all-time gold high.
The demand for gold futures has also been on the rise, with trading volumes in Comex options contracts rising for the 4th session running on Monday to reach the heaviest turnover since gold prices briefly spiked to $2143 on Fed rate-cut hopes 3 months ago. However, trading volumes in Comex gold futures edged back yesterday from Friday's leap to the most since 4 December's price spike.
The gap between Shanghai and London gold prices today slipped to $27 per Troy ounce, three times the typical level of the past decade but the smallest incentive for new bullion shipments – out of the precious metal's global trading hub into its No.1 consumer market – since early December, and down almost $5 from Monday's level. Shanghai premiums on silver also fell back, down to the smallest since early January but still running well above 10% at $2.70 per Troy ounce. Silver then touched a 10-week high Tuesday above $24.20 after fixing at noon in London barely 5 cents below $24 per Troy ounce – its strongest benchmark price the first trading day of 2024 – before also dropping back.
Speculative betting on a rising gold price via Comex futures and options was 14.0% smaller than its 3-year average, net of that same 'Managed Money' category's bearish bets. Speculative betting silver, in contrast, was net bearish, selling short the equivalent of 644 tonnes compared with the net bullish position of 2,395 tonnes shown on average across the last 3 years.
The U.S. equity markets have been paring back bullish bets as struggling mega-cap tech stocks, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL), weigh on the market. The Nasdaq 100 (/NQH4) is the leader lower amid continued weakness by former bellwethers. Bonds are moving higher, with the long end leading the way higher. Gold and silver prices have continued their surge higher over the past few sessions, climbing to their highest levels of the year. Crude oil futures (/CLJ4) drifted lower Tuesday as worries over Chinese growth accelerated amid a backdrop of broader concerns over global economic growth. The pullback in U.S. Treasury yields is filtering through into FX markets, where the Japanese yen (/6JH4) is leading the way higher.
In conclusion, the demand for gold futures is on the rise, with trading volumes in Comex options contracts reaching the heaviest turnover since gold prices briefly spiked to $2143 on Fed rate-cut hopes 3 months ago. However, trading volumes in Comex gold futures have edged back from Friday's leap to the most since 4 December's price spike. The gap between Shanghai and London gold prices today slipped to $27 per Troy ounce, three times the typical level of the past decade but the smallest incentive for new bullion shipments – out of the precious metal's global trading hub into its No.1 consumer market – since early December, and down almost $5 from Monday's level. Speculative betting on a rising gold price via Comex futures and options was 14.0% smaller than its 3-year average, net of that same 'Managed Money' category's bearish bets. Speculative betting silver, in contrast, was net bearish, selling short the equivalent of 644 tonnes compared with the net bullish position of 2,395 tonnes shown on average across the last 3 years.
gold futures market updategold futures analysisgold futures pricesgold futures demandgold futures trading volumesgold futures speculative bettinggold futures gold optionsgold futures silver pricesgold futures silver optionsgold futures equity marketsgold futures stocksgold futures bondsgold futures crude oil futuresgold futures U.S. Treasury yieldsgold futures FX marketsgold futures Japanese yen
